With UCONN and Pitt both losing today, the 1 seed picture suddenly becomes extremely murky. Time for a Breakdown!
1. UNC - A lock for a 1 seed.
2. Memphis - Will earn a 1 seed if they win C-USA tournament.
3. Michigan State - Will earn a 1 seed if they win the Big 10 tournament.
4. Louisville - Will earn a 1 seed with a win over Villanova tomorrow.
5. Duke/Wake Forest - Will earn a 1 seed if they win the ACC tournament, and one of the 3 previous things does not occur.
6. Pitt - Will earn a 1 seed if 2 of the previous 4 things do not occur.
7. UConn - Will earn a 1 seed if 3 of the 4 things Numbered 2-5 do not occur. (Confusing, eh?)
8. Washington, Missouri, Villanova - If none of things listed in steps 2-5 occur, and any of these teams win their conference tournament, they could be in line for a 1 seed.
10. If none of the things listed in steps 2-5, or 8 occur, I would give the final one seed to Memphis.
It's amazing that 11 teams could still conceivably get a 1 seed. Washington, Missouri and Villanova are EXTREME reaches.
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I think UNC and Pitt are locks for #1's.
ReplyDeleteIf Michigan State wins the Big Ten, they're a #1 (great OOC schedule).
I think Louisville would have to win the Big East to get a #1, especially without notching a win over Pitt or UConn. If they don't, they're not a #1 (losses to Western Kentucky, Minnesota and UNLV OOC).
I don't think Duke gets a #1 seed unless they win the ACC and only one of Louisville and Michigan State win their tourneys. If both win, Duke would not jump ahead of UNC.
Wake would have a claim to a #1 if they won the ACC (with wins over UNC and Duke during the season), but they only played one team of note OOC (BYU), and if both Michigan State and Louisville win their conference, Wake would be a #2.
There are two ways I can see Memphis getting a #1 seed. The first is if UNC wins the ACC and only one of Michigan State and Louisville win their conference. That'd set it up as Pitt, UNC, UL/MSU and Memphis. However, if Duke/Wake win the ACC, then both UL and MSU must lose in their tournaments. That'd put it at Duke/Wake, UNC, Pitt and Memphis. If both UL and MSU win, Memphis is a #2, even if they win C-USA.