A lot of teams on the bubble lost tonight
Kentucky, Miami Fl, and Boston College suffered the worst losses of the night.
Virginia Tech, Florida, and Wisconsin all also lost, but their foes were stronger.
Texas A&M, San Diego State, and UNLV won, but their opponents were not tough.
Minnesota and BYU were the big winners of the night, knocking off Wisconsin and Wyoming, respectfully.
A few shockers tonight, Georgia wins @Kentucky, Vandy wins @LSU and Northwestern wins @Purdue.
Don't get ahead of yourself thinking that Mississippi State or Vanderbilt have a shot at an at-large berth or anything. Neither team will be in the RPI top 75 tomorrow. There might be a chance for Auburn, but I think winning 7 of their last 8 is too little too late, even if they close out the year by beating LSU. They are 4-8 vs the top 100, they have 2 losses outside the top 100, and they have only 1 win in the top 50 (Tennessee). Who knows, maybe if they make an appearance in the SEC final and some other things go their way, they make it. Auburn is like that team that is 4-9 in the NFL but still mathematically alive. Still, much respect, I never thought I'd be talking about Auburn.
Northwestern enters the bubble. If they can win @Ohio State to get up to 9-9, then make a move in the Big 10 tourney, they could somehow wind up with an at-large bid.
I am still going to keep Miami Fl on the bubble because it's frankly, still possible. If they win their last game to get up to 7-9, then win 3 ACC tournament games before losing the final, they would be 10-10 in the ACC. With their computer numbers, this would be enough.
It looks like UNLV will play San Diego State both on Saturday and again in the 4/5 matchup of the MWC tournament. If UNLV wins 1 of the 2, I think they'll make it. I think San Diego State needs to win both, or win the 2nd of the two and then win over the 1 seed in the semifinals.
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Let me ask a question. Why is Ohio St. a lock after beating lowly Iowa? If they lose at home to Northwestern (very well could happen) that drops them to a dismal 9-9 in the conference and either a 7 or 8 seed in the Big Ten tournament.
ReplyDeleteTheir OOC resume includes wins over Miami(let's all remember they were losing by 13 when McClinton got ejected and I think it's pretty safe to say they lose if he does not take a swing at OSU's player), Notre Dame (not considered a big win anymore) and Butler at home. Good win, but not great. They were absolutely drubbed by WVU by 30 on their home court.
There is no way that a team with 19 wins, 9-9 in the Big Ten, and an OOC resume that is mediocre should be a "lock".
Let's assume MD beats UVA, and finshes 8-8 in the conference with a 19-11 record, which is exaclty what Ohio St's would be only in a weaker conference. MD would have beaten Michigan St. who swept Ohio St. and they have a win over UNC, which as of right now is the best among any "bubble" team.
Please explain why MD would have to win 2 in a tougher ACC tournament and Ohio St. would be a "lock" w/out having to win in the Big Ten tournament.
Sorry I didn't see this post earlier. Maryland is only 8-10 versus the top 100 with a glaringly bad loss to Morgan State. Meanwhile Ohio State is 9-9 versus the top 100 with no losses outside the top 100. The other chip Ohio State has is their stronger computer numbers. Of course, all of this is moot now that Maryland lost to Virginia.
ReplyDeleteBTW, I never called Ohio State a lock.
http://thebracketoftruth.blogspot.com/2009/03/bubble-still-wide-open.html
On that post from March 3rd, I designated them as a "strong bubble" team.