Bubble Still Wide Open

There are 4 ways I categorize teams contending to make the tournament - Automatic qualifier, Lock, Strong Bubble, and Weak Bubble. Most years, by this time all but the last few at-large berth are seemingly locks. But this year, 15 of the teams I currently project in the field as at-larges I do not consider locks.

They are - Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida, BYU, Ohio State, Arizona, Dayton, Minnesota, Boston College, Penn State, Kentucky, St. Mary's, Texas A&M, Maryland, and UNLV.

Of these, I would consider Wisconsin, South Carolina, Florida, BYU, Ohio State, Arizona, Dayton, Minnesota, and Boston College "Strong" bubble teams.

The rest I consider "Weak" bubble teams.

In addition, there are 11 teams that are not in that I would also categorize as "Weak" Bubble teams.

They are - Oklahoma State, Virginia Tech, Providence, Michigan, Cincinnati, Kansas State, Miami Florida, San Diego State, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Georgetown

So if you do the math, you will find that there are 17 teams fighting for 6 spots. (although strong bubble teams still have time to fail)

Let's take a look at some of the biggest games left on the schedule for these bubble teams. Remember that the bubble is always contigent on what other bubble teams do, and upset winners in conference tournaments. So what I say a team needs to do may or may not be accurate depending on other bubble results.


Tonight - Kansas State @ Oklahoma State

This is a must win for Kansas State, and close to a must win for the Cowboys. Oklahoma State's next and final game is @Oklahoma, and finishing 8-8 means they would probably need a trip to the semifinals in the Big 12 tournament (which would include a win over Kansas, Oklahoma, or Missouri). A win here would transfer Oklahoma State from outside to inside the bubble, but would still leave them somewhere in the weak category. Kansas State, on the other hand, needs to win their last two Big 12 games due to some horrible losses in non conference. If they lose this game and finish 9-7, it would look like a run to the Big 12 finals would be their only hope. OSU is hot right now, there's no reason to think they will lose this one.
UPDATE - Oklahoma State and is now in good contention to get a berth. They could lock it up by winning @Oklahoma. Kansas State will have to be quite impressive in the Big 12 tournament.

Tonight - Utah @ New Mexico

If New Mexico wants to end up with an at-large berth, they simply need to win this game. It's in the Pit, so they have a realistic chance. If they can then go on the road and score another top 100 win @Wyoming, they would at least share a MWC regular season crown. This team did not get off to a good start, but winning 8 of your last 9 with wins over UNLV, Utah, and San Diego State is a good way to make a case. I think if they go 12-4, and win their first game in the MWC tournament (the 6,7 or 8 seed), there would be no way you could leave them out of the field. If they lose this game, maybe a run to the finals would get them in, so I won't call it an elimination game, but it's damn near close.
UPDATE - New Mexico won and is now on the brink of earning a bid, something that seemed unrealistic a few weeks ago. Their next game is @Wyoming, and nobody has won there all year except Utah. If they win, they'll have at least a share of 1st place and in my eyes a bid to the NCAAs.

Tonight - Wake @ Maryland

Winning this game would transfer Maryland into the Strong Bubble category, and finishing out the season with a win @Virginia to get to 9-7 would almost guarantee a spot.
But losing this game and going 8-8 puts them in a tough spot. They would be the 7,8, or 9 seed in the ACC tourney and I think would need a win over the 1 or 2 seed to make the dance.
I love Greivis, but I think they'll lose.
UPDATE - Maryland loses. If they win @Virginia to get up to 8-8, their fate will rest with the ACC tournament. I think they have to score one more big win and make the semis.

Tonight - Ohio State @ Iowa

Ohio State can lock up a bid by just winning this game and beating NW at home. But losing transfers them from the Strong Bubble to the Weak Bubble (they will have lost 5 of 6). Translation, just win baby.
UPDATE - They did win, and I would almost consider them a lock at this point

Wednesday - UNC @ Va Tech and Sunday Va Tech @ Florida State

Winning both games would lock Virginia Tech into the tournament, but losing both would leave them at 7-9 and needing 3 wins (aka run to the finals) in the ACC tournament. Winning 1 of 2 would put them at 8-8, and with them I think just making the ACC quarters would be enough to make it in. They have the most to gain and the most to lose of any team in the final week.
UPDATE - Va Tech's loss means that their game @FSU is a must win if they are to get any at-large consideration.

Wednesday - Wisconsin @ Minnesota

A win for Wisconsin makes them a lock. A win for Minnesota makes them close to a lock. A loss puts a lot of pressure on both teams to win their final game. If Wisconsin loses, they'll have to make sure they beat Indiana at home. As long as they do that, I don't see anyway UW misses. Minnesota's last two games are at home against UW and Michigan, so winning them both would make them easily in. Winning 1 of 2 would put them at .500 in the conference. This would probably put them in an opening round game against Iowa or Indiana in the Big 10 tournament, and just avoiding a bad loss woul probably be enough to get them in. Losing both would be very, very bad, and I think they would need a run to the finals to even have a chance, and maybe have to win the whole thing. I'm going to cautiously take UW to win.
UPDATE - Minnesota wins. Wisconsin needs to avoid losing to Indiana, and both teams need to avoid losing any potential 1st round games in Big 10 tournament. Minnesota can become a lock with win versus Minnesota.

Wednesday - Florida @ Mississippi State

Florida's last two games are @Miss St and at home against Kentucky. If they lose both they'll be 8-8 and that is simply terrible in this years SEC. They would need to do damage in SEC tournament. If they won 1 that would leave them directly on the bubble like they are right now. Winning both would probably get them in regardless of the SEC tournament results. This one has Mississippi State written all over it.
UPDATE - Florida loses. If they lose to Kentucky too, they may have make it to finals of SEC tournament. If they beat Kentucky, all they would have to do is avoid a bad loss in tourney.



Wednesday - BYU @ Wyoming

If BYU wins this game and then takes care of lowly Air Force, there's zero chance they miss the dance. However if they lose this one, which they probably will, they could still fall out of it.
UPDATE - BYU gets a big win @Wyoming, and they are a lock if they can just not lose to winless in conference Air Force. And even if they do, I still like their odds.

Thursday- Providence @ Villanova

A win would almost be strong enough to move Providence from out of the tournament all the way to a lock. A loss would mean they would need a quality win (or two) in the Big East tournament.

Thursday - Dayton @ Xavier

A chance for Dayton to become a lock....or remain on the bubble. If they then lost to Duquesne in the finale, they'd probably be on the outside looking in.

Thursday - Illinois @ Penn State

If Penn State can win this game and win @Iowa, they would be a certainty. But winning only 1 leaves them at 10-8 and needing a win in their would be 4/5 or 3/6 Big 10 matchup.

Arizona's weekend versus Cal and Stanford

Just don't lose both.

Saturday - Michigan @ Minnesota

If Minnesota loses to Wisconsin, this one becomes one of those "play-in games". Both teams would be fighting for a 9-9 finish in the Big 10. The winner wouldn't need to do too much in the Big 10 tournament, the loser would.

Saturday - Kentucky @ Florida

If both teams win their preceding game, this won't decide anything definitely. But if either team trips up before, they simply have to rebound in this game. No one wants to finish 8-8 in this conference.

Saturday - Missouri @ Texas A&M

Like I predicted many moons ago (gotta brag), Texas A&M has a chance to save their season and finish 9-7. This team was once 3-7 in the Big 12, but I never took them off my list. Assuming they win @Colorado (dangerous), this wont be a "must-win" game for them. An 8-8 finish and a trip to the semi's would probably get it done, considering their wins vs Arizona and LSU in non-conference. But if they win both their games, I really can't see anyway they aren't in the field.

USC's weekend against the Oregon schools right now

I don't even have USC on my bubble right now, but if they got back up to 9-9 with two home victories against the Oregon teams, they would be in position to earn a bid in the Pac 10 tournament. Exactly what they would have to do is TBD

UNLV @ San Diego State

UNLV is in better position and could lose this game and still make the tournament with a good showing in the MWC tournament (by the way, always my favorite conference tourney). And since it's in Las Vegas, they'll have a good chance. San Diego State, however, absolutely needs this win. If they lose they'll need to get the automatic berth. If they win, a trip to the finals would make them a lock, making it to the semi's would leave them in the discussion.

Tennessee's week @South Carolina and versus Alabama

Like Arizona, just don't lose both.

And finally, be sure to keep a watchful eye on the WCC, Horizon, C-USA, Southern, Atlantic 10, WAC, MVC, and MAAC conference tournaments. If Butler, Memphis, Gonzaga, or Xavier lost, their corresponding conferences would assuredly get 2 bids (the A-10 could get 3). This would swipe a spot away from our bubble contenders. If St. Mary's, Davidson, Utah State, Creighton, or Siena fail to win their tournaments, they could possibly make it as at-larges, but wouldn't be locks like the others.

P.S. - Keep an eye on Auburn. I've just got a feeling.