Conference Tournaments - Bubble Teams

Time to breakdown the bubble.

First, these are the teams I currently project in that I think could still potentially miss the field:

Wisconsin, Ohio State, South Carolina, Michigan, Oklahoma State, Minnesota, Arizona, Florida, Boston College, Creighton, Penn St., St. Mary's

Here are the teams I think have a relatively good shot of earning a bid in the last week:

UNLV, San Diego State, New Mexico, Providence

Here are the teams that I think are still alive, but would need quite a run to get an at-large berth:

USC, Kansas State, Northwestern, Maryland, Miami Florida, Virginia Tech

Here are the teams that are done playing, but could still get an at-large berth:

Davidson

Now, onto Conference Tournaments.

The Big Ten

This tournament clearly has the most tournament implications around it. The 4/5 matchup is between Wisconsin and Ohio State. The winner is absolutely going to make the field. The loser has a chance to miss the field, but I doubt it. Ohio State is a tad more safe than Wisconsin because they are .500 against the RPI top 100. The 8/9 opening round game pits Minnesota and Northwestern against each other. It looks like the loser of this one will not make it (I suppose Minnesota could, but it would take some help). Minnesota probably does not need to beat Michigan State also, but Northwestern definitely does. The Wildcats may even need to get to the finals to earn their bid. In other opening round action Michigan takes on Iowa. I think a loss here would be pretty inexcusable for Michigan. That would put them under the .500 mark in league play, which is a big no-no. On the other hand, if they win, I think they'll make it regardless of their quarterfinal vs Illinois. Penn State becomes an extremely interesting case. They have a terrible Non-conference resume and an RPI of only 61, but they have 3 wins against the RPI top 25. Losing to Indiana to kick it off would void their entire season. If they lose to Purdue, they are really going to have to sweat it out, and I see them narrowly missing. Getting into the semis is a must if they want to feel secure.

My picks - Northwestern, Michigan, Penn State in the 1st round, MSU, Wisconsin, Purdue, Illinois in the quarters, and Purdue over Wisconsin in the finals.

The Big 12

Not much that is too intriguing as far as the bubble goes. Oklahoma State needs to take care of Iowa State and they are a sure thing. However, a loss would be disastrous and I think they would be left out. Texas A&M may not need to win vs. Texas Tech, but they'd feel a lot more comfortable if they did. Kansas State won a chaotic tiebreaker and earned a 1st round Bye. They will likely have to face Texas in the quarterfinal. A loss and obviously they have no chance. A win would go a long way, but unless they get into the finals, I think it's too little too late.

Picks - Baylor, Texas, Okla St., TAMU in the opening round. Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, and Texas A&M into the semis, in the finals Kansas takes care of Oklahoma.

The Big East

Cincinnati, Georgetown, and Notre Dame are probably too far gone at this point, and will have to win 5 games in 5 days to make the field. Providence is the lone bubble candidate in this conference. Beating the 9/16 winner (probably Cincinnati) will keep them in the conversation on Selection Sunday. But to make my final predicted field, they'll have to beat #1 seeded Louisville as well (unless a whole lot of other teams lose).

Picks - St. John's upsets Georgetown in the opening round. No upsets in the 2nd round. Syracuse takes out UCONN to make the semis, then beats Pitt, before losing to the champion, Villanova.

The ACC

This is one tournament that is going to filled with desperation. Va Tech vs Miami in the 8/9 matchup is a play-out game. Those two teams, along with Maryland, all probably need a run to the finals to warrant consideration. Boston College will not make the field if they lose to Virginia, but they don't need a long run like their bubble-mates do.

Picks - Boston College is only top seed to win in the 1st round. UNC, Wake, Duke, and Georgia Tech are your semifinalists. UNC over Wake in the championship.

The Pac 10

Arizona faces a huge test in the quarterfinals, taking on Arizona State. A win and they're in. A loss might be survivable, but it might not be. It really would depend on other outcomes, like BC, Penn State, Minnesota, and Oklahoma State. USC could still find a way to make the field, but this would require wins against Cal and UCLA. A finals loss would bring them up to 8-12 versus the RPI top 100. This is still probably not enough, considering their two questionable losses to Oregon State and Stanford.

Picks - No upsets all tournament.

The SEC

Considering their first two opponents are Arkansas and Auburn, I believe that Florida needs to make the semifinals to make the big dance. South Carolina must avoid a loss to Mississippi State or Georgia, and Kentucky needs to win the whole thing.

Picks - Kentucky, Miss. St., Vandy and Florida on Day 1. Kentucky, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Auburn on Day 2. South Carolina and Auburn in the finals.....War Eagle.

The Mountain West

The 4/5 matchup is huge here. San Diego State versus UNLV. The loser really doesn't have a shot. If UNLV wins they are definitely in. If San Diego State wins, they are probably in. Making it to the finals would lock it up. Meanwhile, it's tough to say what New Mexico needs to do. Obviously, they need to get by Wyoming in the quarterfinals. If they made it into the finals, I think they would make it. However a loss in the semis to Utah would leave them about where they are right now, just out.

Picks - Air Force finally gets a win. BYU, SD State, Utah, and New Mexico advance, where San Diego State and New Mexico both score upsets. New Mexico takes home the crown, and 4 MWC teams end up in.

Atlantic 10

Dayton ought not lose their first game.
Picks - Dayton over Temple in the finals.

If all of this were to happen like I have picked, and their were no upset-champions in leagues like the Horizon, C-USA, or the WAC, these would be the changes to my projected field -

Moving out - Florida, Arizona, Minnesota

Moving in - New Mexico, San Diego State, Auburn

Penn State would make it as the last team in, and Providence would be the closest team left out.