Mike's Bracket, Morning of February 13th

The lone new arrival today is Jacksonville.

Arizona St. moves up to a 6 seed, Memphis takes Louisville's spot as a 2. USC continues to prove they don't deserve a bid. St. Mary's misses out on last chance for a big win - it now appears they need to win the WCC tournament.

1 seeds - UCONN, UNC, Oklahoma, Pitt
2 seeds - Clemson, Duke, Michigan St., Memphis
3 seeds - Villanova, Louisville, Butler, Ohio State
4 seeds - Xavier, Wake Forest, Illinois, Marquette
5 seeds - Missouri, Kansas, Purdue, UCLA
6 seeds - Gonzaga, Washington, Minnesota, Arizona St.

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7 seeds - Syracuse, Florida State, Cal, Texas
8 seeds - Florida, LSU, Davidson, Utah St.
9 seeds - West Virginia, Kentucky, Virginia Tech, Dayton
10 seeds - Arizona, South Carolina, Tennessee, Miami Fl
11 seeds - UNLV, Georgetown, BYU, Wisconsin
12 seeds - Cincinatti, Utah, Boston College, Siena
13 seeds - W. Kentucky, Northern Iowa, Buffalo, Northeastern
14 seeds - ND St., Vermont, Weber St., VMI
15 seeds - TAMU-CC, Robert Morris, Holy Cross, Jacksonville
16 seeds - CS-Northridge, Morehead St., Morgan St., Alabama St./Princeton

Left out:
1. Kansas State
2. San Diego State
3. Michigan
4. USC
5. Maryland
6. Texas A&M
7. Penn State
8. Providence
9. St. Mary's
10. Nebraska
11. Creighton
12. Oklahoma St.
13. Notre Dame
14. Baylor
15. New Mexico
16. Temple

Could Notre Dame be poised to make a run? When you look at the schedule, they have home games left against South Florida, Rutgers, Villanova, and St. John's. If they win all of those and 1 of 3 @UCONN, @Providence, and @West Virginia, they'll be back to 9-9 in the Big East. That would most likely put them in the 7-10 or 8-9 game in the Big East Tournament (assuming the 15/16 seeds don't win). A trip to the Quarterfinals might be enough for Notre Dame to get back in the field.

Another team that might be poised to make a run is New Mexico. They are 7-3 right now in the strong Mountain West. The remainder of their schedule includes a road trip to BYU and home games against San Diego State and Utah. If they win 2 of those 3 and the rest of their games, they'll be 12-4 in league play. Yes, their 3 losses against teams outside the RPI top 100 hurt, but if they do this and win a game against one of the big 4 (BYU, UNLV, Utah, SD St.) in the conference tournament, they might warrant an at large spot.

You've gotta think Penn State is about to fall off the map. Considering their weak non-conference resume, I think they'll need to go 4-2 down the stretch and finish at 10-8 in league play to have a shot at an at-large berth. And that will be tough considering they'll need at least 2 wins in games against Minnesota, Ohio State, and Illinois twice.

It's gut-check time for Providence. They are 7-5 in league play, but with a 5-9 record against the RPI top 100, they still have a lot of work to do. If they don't want to rely on winning games in the Big East Tournament, they need to get to 11-7 in the conference to get in. That would require a sweep of Rutgers, and splitting against ND, Louisville, Pitt, and Villanova (they get Notre Dame and Pitt at home). I simply don't think they're good enough to accomplish this.